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Prediction for CME (2023-09-01T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-01T23:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26731/-1
CME Note: CME associated with a flare and filament eruption in the SE region S21E44, with eruption starting after 22:14Z. The filament is best seen erupting in 304 (AIA/SUVI) imagery. Arrival Signature: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 5nT to 9nT, reaching a maximum near 10nT. Accompanied by an increase in speed from 380 km/s at 2023-09-05T14:38Z to ~450 km/s at 15:11Z with subsequent increases in density and temperature. This shock likely corresponds to the arrival of CME 2023-09-01T23:12Z and is also observed at STEREO A starting around 2023-09-05T10:50Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-05T14:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-05T12:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/26730/1
Model Inputs:
2023-09-01T23:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-44.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=581.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2023-09-02T04:39Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-09-05T12:30Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-05T18:00Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-04T01:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-05T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230902_043900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 72.73 hour(s)
Difference: 2.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-09-02T13:54Z

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